In a surprising turn of events, the 'Marxist Leninist’ politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake, representing the National Peoples Power as a front organisation of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), emerged as the new president of Sri Lanka following the presidential election on 21st September. This unexpected outcome has sparked a wave of interest and intrigue in the political landscape of the Island.
The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake marked a seismic shift in the landscape of Sri Lankan politics. The choice of a Marxist politician from a nontraditional and non-elite political culture, in the wake of the mass protests of 2022 that led to the fall of the China-friendly Rajapaksas family, has significantly altered the country's political dynamics. Despite its election victory, the current composition of the Sri Lankan parliament posed a significant challenge to the incumbent president. The parliament is still dominated by the ousted president Rajapksas's political party in the aftermath of the 2022 mass protests. Dissanayake has already signalled his intention to dissolve parliament.
The primary driving force behind his victory was JVP’s involvement in the Aragala mass protests and people’s demand for a complete change to the existing political order after the pestered corruption and financial crisis. JVP played a significant role in the mass upheavals known as Aragalaya, which overthrew the then-Sri Lankan president. During the mass protests, the U.S. Mission in Colombo maintained a cordial relationship with the JVP. Despite the widespread support from the Southern economy hit ordinary Sinhala masses, his election as president has surprised the regional and international powers. Norwegian diplomat and former peace negotiator Erik Solheim described his election as a political earthquake in Sri Lanka.
The election victory of a Marxist leader who took office as Sri Lanka’s president has already muddied the political waters in India’s immediate neighbourhood. The Communist administration in Nepal and the hostile political atmosphere in Bangladesh have caused concerns for Delhi. Meanwhile, the Maldives' growing China-friendly tilt and U.S. military aid to insurgents in Myanmar are creating ripple effects that impact India. Recent developments in South Asian countries directly impact India’s geopolitical interests and Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy. Though his opposition political contestant Premadasa seemed to be India’s favourite, India is well prepared to deal with the scenario, unlike Bangladesh and Maldives. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his tweet congratulating the current president, mentioned that Sri Lanka holds a special place in India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and Vision SAGAR, which is India’s doctrine for maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean.
Sri Lanka's new president Anura Kumara Dissanayake
(Source: https://www.thetelegraph.com/news/world/article/marxist-anura-kumara-dissanayake-sworn-in-as-sri-19785537.php)
The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake has already sent shockwaves through the financial markets and currency value, raising significant concerns about Sri Lanka's economic stability. The new president's pledge to renegotiate terms with the IMF to rescue the country`s economy, coupled with his close ties with China, has added a layer of complexity to the situation, leaving many cautious about the future.
The National People’s Power (NPP) election manifesto, led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake, is centred around three key themes: economic reform, social justice, and environmental sustainability. His anti-corruption promises resonated strongly with voters in the South who have been demanding systemic political-economic change since the financial crisis. Though he talks about the "unity of Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims and all Sri Lankans is the bedrock of this new beginning", there is no political willingness to resolve decades-long ethnic conflict on the island. Against the backdrop of the deep-rooted and institutionalised Sinhalese Buddhist state system, his party has been ambiguous and cautious towards any meaningful powersharing, particularly federalism, as they view it as a threat to the unitary structure of the state.
Historically, his party has had staunch opposition to India. The JVP staunchly opposed the Indo-Lanka peace agreement in 1987 and Norwegian-facilitated peace negotiations in 2002. However, meetings of the NPP leadership as a front organisation of the JVP in Delhi early this year are widely seen as a marked shift; it remains to be seen how far the historical hostility towards its immediate neighbour is entrenched in its political psyche.
The creation of the NPP as a front organisation of the JVP marked a significant political transformation in its shift towards approaching international relations pragmatically while upholding leftist leanings. The counterinsurgency literature shows the effectiveness of the front organisation strategy as a method commonly employed by Marxist movements worldwide and often adopted by other non-leftist political groups. As a contemporary case, the African National Congress operates as the front organisation for the South African Communist Party and remains under its influence today. It remains to be seen how he will navigate the geopolitically tested regional waters in the Indian Ocean while maintaining a harmonious, close bilateral relationship with China.
Given the current reality of the island, he cannot simply align with one power by explicitly ignoring the other. His foreign policy would most likely be more balanced, ambiguous, and strategic, safeguarding the island’s interests in promoting and strengthening its economy and stability by using its location to its strategic advantage. His pragmatism regarding the current regional power contestations and domestic political situations should be noticed amidst his much media-hyped Marxist and Leftist orientations. Though the current official position is stated as non-alignment as in the past, the Island`s foreign policy would fluctuate, balancing the influence of the West, India and China.
Kannanathan Rajganna
Kommentar schreiben